The U.S and Russia confrontation in Afghanistan

By  Masud Wadan for VT

Putin’s statement in the UN general assembly was not just meant to step up in Syria but to mull over reactions to the threat posed from Afghanistan. Russia recently made regional visits and discussions over Afghanistan’s issue after realizing that the latest tide in insurgency and the tragic Kunduz incident was designed to intimidate the Central Asian states and, above all, the Russia.  Putin seems to be serious on Afghanistan this time as it proved reaction in Syria.

Russia would prefer offensive response rather than a defensive move, because it watches the west is advancing from around. It is likely that the Russia’s reaction would amount to an air raid on the IS and the Taliban positions within Afghan soil. Despite China has been reluctant to military intervention globally, its authorities offered military help for Syrian government, something which could happen with Afghanistan too.

The formation of an anti-west regional coalition including Russia, China and Iran is an alarming bell for Afghanistan which may turn again into the battlefield of the world powers’ clashes over struggle for regional dominance.

By eventually breaking silence before the U.S movements in the region, Russia wants to show the world that I’m here and I can no longer tolerate the U.S progress. The situation forced the Russia to move beyond the focal point – Syria – to the Palestinian and Israelis conflict over territories.

For now, the only and initial choice the Russia hold is to supply military aircrafts and equipments to Afghan security forces to use them as the best possible means in the counterinsurgency. This military package would be mainly aimed to target the militants posing direct threat to Russia.

Intensification of war in Afghanistan could keep Russia busy on war, partly turning away its concentration over Syria and Ukraine, and drawing Russian authorities’ concern to make more deployments along its border and push Tajikistan to place reinforcements into the border with Afghanistan.

Russia is not willing to engage its military forces in the war with the U.S in Afghanistan over being too costly as it experienced the loss during invasion in 80s. On the other hand, Russia is still economically reeling from the sanctions by the EU and the US over Ukraine crisis which was then extended by Russia itself as a retaliatory move to the EU and US bans.

Reports say the plot for destabilization of the northern provinces of Afghanistan was first chalked out during the second term of ex-president Hamid Karzai. The flow of migrants from tribal areas in the southern Afghanistan into north in the name of returnees, arming of illegal armed groups (IAGs) under pretext of strengthening the Afghan Local Police (ALP), instigating hostility among local warlords, freeing of dangerous inmates during Karzai government, abandoning of the key Dand-e Ghoori area and supplying of arms to the Taliban fighters through ground and air by Afghan military helicopters all were arrangements for a restive north.

With a look at the surge of insecurity in northern Afghanistan, it can be asserted that the provinces in the north could turn into another Waziristan for militancy that would serve as a lawless sanctuary for the Taliban militants and fighters loyal to the ISIS for an uncertain period in the future.

The situation in north is increasingly going out of the control of government. The government is playing a double-faced game with the people, as it usually adopts post-attack counteractions than pre-attack measures. 

Among efforts to undermine security in the north, one was the establishment of Madrasas across many provinces in the northern Afghanistan whose number is far beyond thought. It serves as center for recruitment of rebel forces where adherents are taught hatred and hostility with Afghan security forces.

The northern Balkh province’s powerful and influential governor and jihadist leader Atta M. Noor who is refusing to step down despite illegally holding the governorship, run big businesses in the province. He sees the imminent violence in the north as a big threat which may imperils his self-ruled jurisdiction and shrinks his role in the province.

In July, a huge ammunition cache which belonged to a local jihadist warlord was discovered and blown up by the U.S and Afghan security forces in an operation in parwan province. There were rumors that the arms were received from Russia along the years since the civil conflict in 90s to date.

The U.S was worried about the use of the weapons against it, as the jihadist warlords rule numerous illegal armed personnel along the highway in parwan province and beyond, which might challenge the U.S and government to have ground access to the provinces in the north or stir up the menace of offensive position in opposition to the U.S and Afghan government.

We admit the rising violence throughout Afghanistan, but propaganda for insurgency is a step ahead of the fact as some media outlets exaggeratingly inflating the ISIS and the Taliban’s foothold in the country. Fear-spreading propaganda is a helpful insurgency instrument letting militants to have a less troubled advancement in the region for seizing territories.

If there were no international and national level support to the militants, they would have not survived so long. A terrorist group in Afghanistan is often well armed and well aware of an area’s road map to make gains. It doesn’t make sense to one that how a city of 7000 troops fell into the hands of the Taliban insurgents not exceeding 500 in number.

Thousands of Kunduz dwellers are now stuck in houses with no food. Babies lost lives over drained breast milk. Many innocent people were captured and ruthlessly decapitated over charge of being government agent. At last, it is the ordinary Afghan people who should sacrifice and pay for the dire consequences of the invasion.

Unfortunately, the proxy war in Afghanistan and worldwide has always been effective with the loss of as much civilian lives as possible. Players of war consider it necessary to bring about fatalities at bombings as a means of pressure on the opposite side for their evil intents.